Predictability of Present Outcome and Future Recurrence in Acute Pancreatitis

• Although acute pancreatitis is relatively common, factors useful in predicting immediate outcome or likelihood of recurrence have seldom been studied in greater detail. A ten-year experience with 389 patients hospitalized for 821 separate episodes of acute pancreatitis was reviewed. The overall mortality was 6.7%, being highest on the first admission and considerably greater for white males. Respiratory complications accounting for 27% of the fatalities were the most common causes of death. The incidence of considerable morbidity was 19.5%. Clinical diagnoses of "shock" and "respiratory distress" were associated with mortalities of 88% and 71%, respectively. The overall recurrence rate was 50.1%, with little variation regardless as to the number of previous bouts. Recurrence was more likely if the patient was black, male, older than 30 years of age, and had experienced a second episode of acute pancreatitis. Admission data aid considerably in identifying high-risk patients in whom major complications develop, who die during the present episode, or who have a future recurrent bout of acute pancreatitis.

(Arch Surg 114:711-716, 1979)