The accuracy of rotation evaluation forms was assessed to determine the usefulness of clinical performance ratings in predicting competence in a general surgery residency.
Longitudinal, 15-year, multifactorial, repeated-measures design.
University medical center residency training program.
General surgery and subspecialty residents (n=310) entering postgraduate training from 1976 to 1990 received 6459 rotation evaluations. Predictive efficiency of 4423 evaluations of a subsample of 199 residents admitted to the general surgery program during the study period was assessed using several outcome measures.
Main Outcome Measure:
Attending surgeons categorized and ranked residents' competence at the completion of training.
Rotation evaluations identified 77.8% of residents who involuntarily withdrew. Prediction of outcome category (problem, average, or superior residents), as well as final ranking (R2=.54), were demonstrated (P<.001). Evaluations of residents from the first year of training onward predicted outcome at the end of training (P<.01).
Rotation evaluations demonstrate predictive validity in documenting resident performance, particularly when the accuracy of individual raters is known.(Arch Surg. 1994;129:1067-1073)